Table of Contents

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Acknowledgments
15
Preface
17
1 Introduction
21
1.1 Defining Demand Management
22
1.2 The Relevance of Managing Demand
24
1.3 The Balance Sheet and the Income Statement
27
1.4 The Role of Demand Management within Sales and Operations Planning
29
1.5 SAP Solutions Overview
30
1.6 Summary
33
2 Projecting Demand
35
2.1 Assembling the Parts into a Whole
35
2.2 Ascertaining the Size and Shape of a Market
38
2.3 Sales and Operations Planning within APO Demand Planning
41
2.4 Summary
43
3 Engaging in Demand Planning
45
3.1 How Companies Engage in Adopting Demand Management
45
3.1.1 Process
48
3.1.2 Technology
49
3.2 Finding the Value to Create a Business Case
50
3.2.1 Deliverables
55
3.2.2 Engagement Plan
56
3.2.3 Process
57
3.2.4 Case Study
63
3.3 What SAP Solutions Can Support This
65
3.3.1 SAP Business Suite for Demand Management
66
3.3.2 Core Demand Planning with SAP ERP
68
3.3.3 SAP Supply Chain Management (SCM
69
3.3.4 Advanced Demand Planning with SAP APO
70
3.3.5 Composite Demand Planning with Duet and SAP SCM
73
3.3.6 Easy to Use Planning Sheets
74
3.3.7 Flexible and Efficient Planning
75
3.3.8 Customer Collaboration Using SAP Supply Network Collaboration
76
3.4 Summary
77
4 Statistical Forecasting
79
4.1 Looking Back to See Ahead
79
4.2 Basic Statistical Forecasting Algorithms
81
4.2.1 Constant Demand
82
4.2.2 Trend Demand
83
4.2.3 Seasonal Demand
84
4.2.4 Seasonal Trend Demand
85
4.2.5 Lumpy Demand
85
4.2.6 First-Order Exponential Smoothing
86
4.2.7 Second-Order Exponential Smoothing
90
4.2.8 Model Fit: Ex-Post Forecast and Outliers
91
4.3 Planning Books
94
4.3.1 Data View
95
4.3.2 Selection Profile
95
4.4 Summary
99
5 Interactive Planning and Advanced Statistical Forecasting
101
5.1 Characteristic Combinations and Data Selections
101
5.1.1 Introduction to Characteristic Combinations
102
5.1.2 Creating Characteristic Combinations
103
5.1.3 Displaying Characteristic Combinations
107
5.1.4 Data Selections in Interactive Demand Planning
108
5.2 Statistical Forecast: Core Functionality Setup
111
5.2.1 Forecast Profile
113
5.2.2 Executing the Forecast
118
5.3 Running the Forecast in Interactive Planning
121
5.3.1 Forecast View Tabs
124
5.3.2 Forecast Comparison
129
5.4 Using Like-Modeling and Phase-In/Phase-Out to Support Product Planning Across Its Lifecycle
131
5.4.1 Like-Modeling
132
5.4.2 Phase-In/Phase-Out Modeling
133
5.5 Incorporating Custom Forecasting Algorithms
138
5.6 Statistical Forecasting in SAP ERP and SAP APO
139
5.7 Summary
143
6 Leading Indicators
145
6.1 Examples of Business Indicators
145
6.2 Complementary Products
147
6.3 Causal Forecasting in SAP APO Leveraging Multiple Linear Regression
148
6.3.1 Data Requirements
149
6.3.2 Executing the MLR Forecast
151
6.4 Summary
153
7 Downstream Demand
155
7.1 Vendor-Managed Inventory and Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment Leveraging SAP APO
155
7.2 CPFR Process Overview
157
7.2.1 Stage 1: Initial Agreements
159
7.2.2 Stage 2: Forecasting
160
7.2.3 Stage 3: Replenishment
162
7.2.4 CPFR: Revised Model
163
7.3 Comparison of VMI and CPFR Processes
165
7.4 Collaborative Planning Process in SAP APO
167
7.4.1 Collaborative Demand Planning Process in SAP APO
169
7.4.2 Settings for Collaborative Demand Planning in SAP APO
171
7.4.3 VMI Process in SAP APO
176
7.5 Consumption Data and the Vision Chain Demand Signal Repository
183
7.6 Customer Collaboration with SAP SNC
187
7.6.1 Generating Forecasts in SAP SNC
188
7.6.2 Collaborative Sales Forecasting (CSF)
191
7.6.3 Settings for Consensus Finding Framework
194
7.6.4 Collaborative Sales Forecasting Process
196
7.6.5 Short-Term Forecasting Process
198
7.6.6 Replenishment Planning
201
7.7 Summary
202
8 Marketing
205
8.1 The Gap Between Projections and Expectations
206
8.1.1 Pulling Demand Forward
206
8.1.2 Increasing Your Market Share
208
8.2 The Four Ps of Marketing
215
8.2.1 Product
216
8.2.2 Pricing
216
8.2.3 Placement
217
8.2.4 Promotion
218
8.3 Promotions in SAP APO
219
8.3.1 Promotion Planning Process: Overview
219
8.3.2 Promotion Base
219
8.3.3 Cannibalization Group
221
8.3.4 Create Promotional Planning in SAP APO
222
8.3.5 Postpromotion Evaluation
227
8.3.6 Promotion Reporting
230
8.4 Promotional Forecasting in Customer Collaboration
232
8.4.1 Promotion Planning in SAP SNC
232
8.4.2 Maintaining Promotion Patterns and Event Types
237
8.4.3 Maintaining Offset Profile
239
8.4.4 Assigning Promotion Parameters
241
8.4.5 Create Promotional Planning in SAP SNC
242
8.5 Summary
244
9 Sales
245
9.1 Guidance, Incentives, and Information
246
9.2 Configuring SAP APO Demand Planning for Sales Input
247
9.2.1 Designing Planning Books and Layouts for Sales Input
248
9.2.2 Assigning Users to a Data View
250
9.2.3 Creation of Consensus Demand Plan
251
9.3 Sales Input through Duet Demand Planning
254
9.3.1 Working with Duet to Input Sales Data
255
9.3.2 Planning Sheets
255
9.3.3 Designing Planning Sheets Using the Wizard
256
9.3.4 Sales Input through Planning Sheets
258
9.4 Summary
260
10 Pulling It All Together
261
10.1 Map, Mirror, Headlight, and GPS
261
10.2 Consensus Demand Planning
262
10.3 Demand Combination in SAP APO
269
10.4 Summary
274
11 Realize Demand
275
11.1 The Balance Sheet and the Income Statement
275
11.2 Strategic (Long-Term) Decisions
278
11.3 Operational (Medium-Term) Decisions
280
11.4 Tactical (Short-Term) Decisions
284
11.5 Impact of Downstream Events on Demand Management
285
11.6 Operationalizing the Demand Plan
293
11.6.1 Supply Network Planning (SNP
293
11.6.2 Materials Requirement Planning (MRP
300
11.6.3 SAP APO Global Available-to-Promise (GATP
303
11.7 Summary
305
12 Process and Performance Management
307
12.1 Identify and Confront Bias
307
12.2 Assigning Responsibility for Accuracy
309
12.3 Absolute and Weighted Metrics
309
12.4 Lagged Accuracy
313
12.5 Reporting Forecast Accuracy with SAP APO and SAP NetWeaver BW
314
12.5.1 Steps for Extracting Planning Data
315
12.6 Summary
328
13 Managing a Change Process
331
13.1 Selecting a Team or Partner
331
13.1.1 Different Types of Implementation Partners
331
13.1.2 What to Look for in an Implementation Partner
333
13.1.3 Importance of Implementation Methodology
336
13.2 Governance Model
337
13.2.1 Project Governance Framework
339
13.2.2 Key Elements of Successful Project Governance
343
13.3 Sequencing and Scope of Solutions Implementation
345
13.3.1 Quick Benefit Realization
345
13.3.2 Minimizing Change Management
346
13.3.3 Minimizing Rework
346
13.3.4 Staffing Constraint
347
13.4 Project Management Methodology
348
13.4.1 ASAP Toolset
349
13.5 Global Engagement Delivery Model (GEDM
350
13.5.1 GEDM: Assessment and Discovery Engagement
351
13.5.2 GEDM: Blueprint
352
13.5.3 GEDM: Realization
354
13.5.4 GEDM: Go-Live Preparation
356
13.5.5 GEDM: Go-Live and Support
356
13.6 Defining Project Success Criteria
357
13.6.1 Financial and Operational Metrics
358
13.6.2 Stakeholder Satisfaction
359
13.6.3 Meeting Project Objectives and Requirements
359
13.6.4 Within Budget
360
13.6.5 Within Timelines
360
13.6.6 Value Added to the Organization
360
13.6.7 Quality Requirements
361
13.6.8 Team Satisfaction
361
13.6.9 Relationship with the Consulting Partner
361
13.6.10 Ability to Sustain the Implementation Successfully
361
13.6.11 Ability to Be a Customer Reference
362
13.7 Tracking the Value
362
13.8 Summary
363
14 Conclusion
365
14.1 Financial and Strategic Implications of Managing Demand
365
14.2 Project, Impact, Realize, Correct
366
14.3 SAP Solutions
369
14.4 Case Study
371
14.5 Benefits of Demand Planning Systems
373
14.6 Summary
377
Appendices
379
A Business Planning
379
A.1 Expectations and Guidance by Public Companies
379
A.2 Establishing the Product Mix
381
A.3 Setting Sales Targets
382
A.4 Business Planning and Consolidation
387
A.5 Summary
387
B The Authors
389
Index
391